I would like to apologize for my 1-3 record last week, but to be fair, very few prognosticators were above .500 last week. All right that may be just me trying to rationalize how I did, let’s just move on.
Now before we examine the next round of playoffs games let’s look back and see what we learned from Wild Card Weekend:
(1) It looks like Carson Palmer is done as a “Franchise Quarterback”. Palmer followed up a mediocre 2009 season with an embarrassing performance against the Jets. (18-36-146 YDS, TD, INT) He kept missing open targets throwing behind and above his targets consistently. To be fair the Bengals had no playmakers beyond an injured Ochocinco on the field, but at the same time his accuracy was way off.
(2) Shonn Greene will be the starting Jets running back in 2010. Unless he loses three fumbles vs. the Chargers, the rookie running back from Iowa will supplement the 31 year old Thomas Jones next season.
(3) Wade Phillips looks like Benny Hill.
(4) LT Jason Peters is not a Pro Bowl player. Andy Reid never should have left Peters alone to “try” to handle DeMarcus Ware, never.
(5) For that matter the entire Eagles O-Line looked slow.
(6) New England does not have any super stars on their roster anymore. If healthy, Randy Moss and Tom Brady are elite players, but against Baltimore, both looked banged up and tentative.
(7) Joe Flacco is regressing. The Ravens didn’t ask him to do much and he didn’t even do that.
(8) Ray Lewis is still scary.
(9) Everyone on the Cardinals and Packers defense is wildly overrated. How could they give the Defensive MVP to Charles Woodson over Darrell Revis after what we saw on the weekend?
(10) God loves Kurt Warner just a little bit more than the rest of us. Seriously, four incompletions vs. five touchdowns??? That maybe the craziest NFL related stat that I’ve ever seen.
Moving on to the Divisional Playoffs …
Arizona @ New Orleans (-7)
I’m going to get rid of my “Reasons” why I think both teams will win shtick; clearly it didn’t work last week for me. Instead I’ll just tell you why my predicted winner is going to win.
I like the well rested Saints to win and cover over the Cardinals. If the Packers could rack up 32 first downs, 493 yards and six touchdowns just imagine what the Saints offense will do. They may be able to shut down one of the Saints’ WR’s but there is no way that secondary shuts down all those targets. CB Michael Adams’ blitz may have been the difference in OT but this is the same guy that was getting beat up on all over the field by Aaron Rodgers.
Sean Payton has had a week to study the Packers/Cardinals tape and I think he’ll find just enough ways to slow down the Cardinals attack to under 30 points. Look for a big day from Darren Sharper.
Prediction: New Orleans: 37 – Arizona: 27
Baltimore @ Indianapolis (-6.5)
You can’t beat the Colts without making at least 2-4 big plays through the air. Right now does anyone think that Joe Flacco can make those plays? The Ravens were dominating the Pats with their ground game and yet Flacco still couldn’t take advantage of all the single coverage that was available for him. That said, the Ravens offense is physical enough to carry them. Jared Gaither and Michael Oher is the best tackle combo left in the playoffs and Ray Rice can do anything the coaching staff asks him to do.
That said I see the Colts winning and covering the spread. I see a close game though three quarters with the Colts blowing it open in the 4th.
This may be Peyton Manning’s best season as a pro; and while his playoff record is surprisingly bad (7-8), there is no way he lets this team lose this weekend. The Ravens secondary has been vulnerable all year and will be beaten by the likes of Wayne, Clark and Garcon.
The Colts are going to want to prove that the last two weeks of the regular season meant nothing and I see them doing that on Saturday night.
Prediction: Indianapolis: 24 – Baltimore: 10
Dallas @ Minnesota (-2.5)
This is the hardest game to pick and the most fascinating contest this weekend. On one end you have Tony Romo starting to prove he is a winner vs. Brett Favre who is trying to show that he is still a winner.
Right now I bet you are going with Dallas? Aren’t you? It’s really easy to go with the Cowboys, who have to be the hottest team right now. They destroyed the Eagles twice and were the first team to hand the Saints a loss. Their offense is perfectly balanced and between DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer and Jay Ratliff there is more than enough playmakers on the other side of the ball as well.
Now I am not saying I am picking the Vikings, but let’s remember just how good a team they are as well. They catch match any team personnel wise.
If they have any chance of winning it will come down to one man, Jared Allen. Playing at home is a big plus for him as the crowd noise will give Allen a half step advantage over whomever he is lining up against. In this case it will be the much penalized and oft criticized Flozell Adams. Forget about the Brett Favre drama for a second and focus on that individual battle. If Allen can start hitting Romo early and often than the Cowboys offense can fall apart.
So am I going against the crowd and picking the Vikings?
No, no I am not.
Usually you should not try to read too much into what the wildcard winners did the week previous. For instance I didn’t boost the stock of the Jets, Ravens or Cardinals after their wins, but I am with the Cowboys. They needed to prove that they could get a win in the postseason. Now that they have, well the sky’s the limit.
Prediction: Dallas: 24 – Minnesota: 21
NY Jets @ San Diego (-7)
I could care less about this game. Good on the Jets for proving there better than just a lucky team that backed into the playoffs but their run ends here.
Shonn Green will have some early success but not enough for the Jets to keep up with the Chargers passing attack. Revis will shutdown Vincent Jackson but Antonio Gates, Malcolm Floyd and Darren Sproles will have big games while Tomlinson is pouting on the sidelines.
Mark Sanchez is due for a stinker, I see it happening here.
Prediction: San Diego: 27 – NY Jets: 17