Our premier episode of ‘Fantasy Sports: The 411’ kicks off this Friday. I think I speak for all football fans when I say how excited I am for the upcoming season. Every year people talk about how this is going to be a ‘crazy/unpredictable’ season and 2010 is no exception.
For the season I plan on blogging about guys I like for each week. For our first show Gareth and I will be going over players we love/hate for the entire season. Hopefully I get more picks right than wrong … fingers crossed.
QUARTERBACKS
Sure Shot: Carson Palmer.
The Bengals spent the off season doing their best to give Palmer the weapons he needs for an effective aerial attack. Let’s face it no QB is going to succeed when his 2nd and 3rd best WR’s are Laveranues Coles and Andre Caldwell. Throw in the fact that the team lacked a quality pass catching TE and it’s easy to see why Carson’s numbers were so mediocre.
The team brought in Antonio Bryant, Terrell Owens and drafted WR Jordan Shipley (Texas) and the best tight end in the draft, Oklahoma’s Jermaine Gresham.
Clearly the team’s mind set is to have a more balanced attack in 2010.
I see at least 3500 yards and 23-26 TD’s this season. Palmer is undervalued and will be a solid #2 QB on your team.
Worth The Risk: Jason Campbell.
Jason Campbell’s numbers are better than you think. Playing for a mess (Jim Zorn!!!) of team last year he still posted career highs in yards (3618) and touchdown passes (20). He won’t win you a pool but remember there is no other competition at QB in Oakland and I don’t find the secondaries in the AFC West to be the most daunting. The guy has great late round value and will slip in many drafts.
Super Sleeper: Kyle Orton.
Forget his name for a second and just look at his numbers: 3802 yards and 21 touchdown passes. The problem is there is absolutely nothing sexy or intriguing about Orton. He’s an afterthought for most NFL fans. Yes his numbers will take a drop with Brandon Marshall but with the Broncos defence taking a hit and all their running backs banged up you can expect a high level of garbage yardage from a guy you just don’t equate with fantasy value.
Just Terrible: Eli Manning
This is nothing against Eli Manning the quarterback, who had his best statistical season last year. The problem is his 4000 yards and 27 TD passes were just as much about his skill as it was about the fact that the Giants D ranked 30th in points allowed while the running attack finished at a mediocre 17th. Faced with these problems the Giants were forced to throw the ball more than anyone would have wanted.
This year the D will be improved plus with Ahmad Bradshaw fully healthy look for the Giants to again rank in the Top-8 in rushing.
Eli’s numbers will go down but the team will win more games.
Just Terrible: Mark Sanchez
This one is simple, his best receiver (Santonio Holmes) is gone for the first four games and the team is dedicated to running the ball. Throw in the fact that Sanchez has done little to disprove the fact that he’s a turnover machine and I think it’s a safe bet that Rex Ryan won’t be dialing up a lot of passes.
The Jets are at their best when Sanchez’s pass attempts don’t go too much above 20.
WIDE RECEIVERS:
Sure Shot: Malcolm Floyd
No one has any idea what the future is for the former #1 WR Vincent Jackson. He’s facing a three game suspension for substance abuse and his rift with the Chargers has a bit of a Tiger/Elin feel. San Diego is just not one of those teams that will cave to player demands. I wouldn’t be surprised if Jackson never played another game as a Charger.
So in steps Malcolm Floyd as the new #1 guy. He has a good rapport with Philip Rivers and averaged over 17 yards a catch in 2009.
Look for him to exceed 1100 yards in 2010.
Worth The Risk: Santana Moss
Much like Campbell Moss managed to do fairly well statistically playing for a misguided team, gaining 902 yards.
Mike Shanahan has brought a sense of order to the team and Donovan McNabb has made many receivers look better than there actual talents would suggest. Washington really doesn’t have another legitimate WR ready to take the role of ‘The Guy’. I like Moss to surpass 1000 yards.
Super Sleeper: Jabar Gaffney
Now that Brandon Marshall is gone Gaffney is the #1 guy for the Broncos. Unlike the other wide-outs on the team Gaffney goes back along way with coach Josh McDaniels, the two worked together back in New England.
Gaffney had 732 yards as the #2 and sometimes #3 guy last year, I expect a big jump in 2010.
Just Terrible: Larry Fitzgerald
Yes he maybe the most talented WR in the NFL but Larry is in a horrible situation with Kurt Warner out and the clueless Matt Leinart in. I just can’t see Fitzgerald having the same fantasy impact with Leinart under centre. He’s also dealing with off season knee issues and it’s worth mentioning that Fitzgerald didn’t exactly have a great 2009 finishing with his lowest yardage total since 2006 and his 11.3 YPC was not exactly impressive.
Don’t make the mistake of drafting Fitzgerald as your top WR. He’s not even Top-5.
Just Terrible: Brandon Marshall
Much like Fitzgerald expect Marshall’s numbers to fall because of his team. Marshall should help the Dolphins make it back to the playoffs but Miami will win with Brandon catching 4-5 balls a agme while the rushing attack does most of the damage. Don’t expect a 100 catch season from Brandon this year.
RUNNING BACK:
Sure Shot: Frank Gore
I love the fact that the 49ers drafted two offensive linemen in the first round. Teams don’t do that unless they are committed to the run. Gore racked up over 1500 total yards and 13 touchdowns despite missing three games. Without a legitimate back-up stealing carries I would not be surprised to see Gore finish as a Top-2 fantasy running back.
Worth The Risk: Ahmad Bradshaw
He’s finally healthy and from all reports is the best running back on a Giants team looking to re-dedicate itself to the run. If he could run for almost 800 yards while being nicked up in 2009 than he can easily break a 1000 yards this year.
Super Sleeper: Arian Foster
The best running back on the Houston Texans suddenly has less competition than he did a month ago. Talented rookie Ben Tate is out for the year with injuries and Steve Slaton has already fumbled this pre-season. Foster will be the main man for a team that had better learn to run the ball if they expect to make the playoffs for the first time in franchise history.
Just Terrible: Cedric Benson
This is my hunch pick. I just can’t live in a world where Benson is an important player. Last year was a revelation for him, but again I look for Cincinnati to focus more on the pass than they did in 2009.
Just Terrible: Felix Jones
Don’t buy the hype that this will be “His Year!” He’s still dealing with injury concerns and is pass blocking still isn’t where it needs to be for a featured back. Let someone else be the hero who drafts Jones two rounds too early.
TIGHT ENDS:
Sure Shot: Kellen Winslow
Quick name two other wide receivers or tight ends on Tampa Bay … exactly. Winslow caught 77 passes last year and with a year of experience under his belt Josh Freeman should improve as a passer. I would not be surprised if he leads the NFL in receptions.
Worth The Risk: Josh Carlson
What I like about Carlson is he’s the only tight end on the roster who is a capable receiver. The rest are just a bunch of glorified offensive tackles. Coach Pete Carroll has spent much of the off season talking about getting Carlson more involved this year. Now as long as Matt Hasselbeck can stay healthy …
Super Sleeper: Jermaine Gresham
Best tight end that Carson Palmer has ever played with. Love his upside. Grab him near the bottom of your draft.
Just Terrible: Visanthe Shiancoe
My ultimate ‘Market Correction’ pick. No way he scores 11 touchdowns again, no way. Visanthe doesn’t rack up a lot of targets, catches or yardage. Touchdowns are just so random for tight ends. Remember the great Tony Gonzalez had five seasons where he caught five or fewer TD’s.
Just Terrible: Greg Olsen
No tight end in a Mike Martz offence has ever caught more than 38 balls. Olsen has a ton of talent but I just don’t expect him to match his reception total of 2009 (60). I see Martz trying to get the ball to all his young and talented wide-outs.