Packers at Falcons: Flip a coin for this game because it’s likely to come down to something like a lucky bounce. Atlanta has won 4 in a row, and perhaps it’s something about the “Keystone State”, as both Falcons losses have come against the Pennsylvania based teams. The Eagles defeated Atlanta 31-17 on October 17, and the Steelers outlasted them 15-9 in overtime on the first Sunday of the season. Atlanta is strong statistically, ranking 7th in rushing yards, 12th in passing yards, 6th in opponents rushing yards, however they are 24th in opponents passing yards. That was illustrated in the Falcons game with Baltimore, where the Ravens were able to drive on Atlanta late in the game and go in front by 21-20 on a Flacco touchdown pass to Todd Heap,with only 1:05 left on the clock, and only a late counterstrike by Matt Ryan to reliable Roddy White for 6 point with a 2 point conversion with 20 seconds remaining, won the game for the Falcons, by a score of 26-21. The Packers have had severe injury problems, so their statistical data do not really tell an accurate story. Of more relevance, is the fact that Green Bay has won 4 in a row, with two decisive wins, 31-3 over the Vikings, a 45-7 trouncing of the Cowboys, and an equally impressive 9-0 shutout of the Jets at the New Meadowlands. Atlanta is perfect at home, while the Packers are 3-2 away.
Atlanta 28 Green Bay 26
Steelers at Bills: The Bills deserve all the credit in the world for playing no-nonsense competitive football, after their season had realistically ended several weeks ago, even though it is not reflected in their overall record of 2-8. They have won 2 straight, including a 49-31 thrashing of the Bengals in Cincinnati last Sunday. At the end of October, Buffalo lost two overtime games back to back at Baltimore, and in Kansas City. The Bills do have the league’s worst rush defense, allowing on average, 163.5 yards per game. They are much better defending the pass, in which they are 9th. Pittsburgh is the league’s best at defending the run, allowing only 63 yards, however they are only 21st at defending the pass. In their previous four games, the Steelers have lost to the Saints in Louisiana, and to the Patriots at Heinz Field. They have defeated both Oakland and Cincinnati.
Pittsburgh 33 Buffalo 23.
Carolina at Cleveland: The Browns even shocked their own fans, by beating the Saints and Patriots back to back. They have lost two in succession since then, but only by 24-20 to Jacksonville in Florida, and in overtime 26-20 to the Jets, in the memorable battle of the Ryan twins. The Panthers only have one win, against the 49ers, and have given up more than 30 points in their last 3 games. The only category where the Panthers are respectable, is in opponents passing yards, where they are 7th. With a team as bad as this, it really doesn’t mean a whole lot. On offense, they are 32nd in passing yards, and 23rd in rushing yards.
Cleveland 31 Carolina 15
Jaguars at Giants:
This could be a difficult game for New York. Steve Smith will miss his third straight and Hakeem Nicks, tied for second in the NFC with 62 receptions, and tied for third in the league with nine receiving touchdowns, will be out for at least 3 weeks, according to ESPN.com. The Jaguars are ranked 28th overall in pass defense. One of the better matchups will be Maurice Jones-Drew, with 220 total yards last week, versus the Giants fifth ranked rush defense. New York is also 5th in rushing yards, 7th in passing yards,and 2nd against opponents passing. The Jaguars are 6th overall in rushing yards, and are also 25th in passing yards. Jacksonville might be without receiver Mike Sims-Walker, who was out with a sprained-left ankle. The Jags have won three in a row, and five of their previous seven. In spite of their glowing stats, the Giants have lost to Dallas 33-20, and Philadelphia 27-17, in the last two weeks. New York is 3-2 at home, and Jacksonville is 2-2 away.
Giants 33 Jaguars 28.
Vikings at Redskins: Anytime there is a coaching change in any professional sport, it is not unusual to see the team with a new coach, respond with some enthusiasm and improved play, at least for a while. Leslie Frazier, the former defensive coordinator for Minnesota, takes over for Brad Childress. Brett Favre has 17 interceptions and 10 touchdowns. Donovan McNabb has not played well overall for the Redskins this season, although he threw for 376 yards against the Titans last week in the Washington 19-16 overtime win, and the Skins are 9th overall in passing yards. Adding to the challenge for the Skins this week, is the abdominal muscle tear for Clinton Portis, and the hamstring injury to Ryan Torain. That means Keiland Williams will be getting the carries. He has 195 rushing yards, three touchdowns, and 162 receiving yards, with two touchdowns, according to ESPN.com. The Redskins have other injury woes as well. Safety LeRon Landry is out with a left Achilles tendon problem. Safety Anderson Russell and center Casey Rabach are both doubtful. Minnesota is 0-5 on the road, with only one win in their last 5 games, and a 31-3 beating last week by the Packers, while the Redskins are 2-3 at home.
Vikings 28 Redskins 24
Titans at Texans: Tough times for the Titans, with unhappy Vince Young out with season ending surgery on his thumb. Rusty Smith will make his first start. Smith threw nine passes in his first NFL appearance last week, completing 3 passes for 62 yards, along with an interception. Kerry Collins is out with a calf injury. Offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger was diagnosed with cancer this week, and will begin treatment on Monday. Tennessee is 9th in rushing, and that’s no surprise with Chris Johnson and his 968 rushing yards,as well as 9 touchdowns. They are 31st in passing yards. On defense, the Titans are 26th against the pass. They have lost 3 straight. The Texans are 32nd against the pass,and are 8th in rushing yards with Arian Foster in the backfield. Houston is 11th in passing yards, and they have lost 5 of their previous 6 games, including a heartbreaking 30-27 defeat to the Jets in New York last week.
Titans 31 Texans 30.
Dolphins at Raiders: The Dolphins will have to start Tyler Thigpen again, and that could be trouble, after being sacked six times and intercepted once with only 187 yards, in their 16-0 loss to Chicago last Thursday. The Raiders got blasted 35-3 at Heinz Field last week. Miami is 4th in pass defense,and 20th against the run. They are only 21st in rushing and 16th in passing offense. Oakland is 2nd in rushing yards,but only 29th in passing. They are ranked 3rd against the pass and 25th against the run. Prior to the blowout loss to the Steelers, the Raiders had won 4 of their last 5 games, including the Chiefs, Seahawks, and Broncos. Miami is 4-1 on the road, with the Raiders 4-1 when they are home.
Raiders 36 Dolphins 19
Chiefs at Seahawks: The Chiefs are 1-4 away,while the Seahawks are 3-1 at home. Kansas City is 1st in rushing yards, and 26th in passing. They are 25 against the pass,and 12th in stopping the run. Seattle is 31st in rushing and 19th in passing. They are 30th in pass defense and 13th against the run. Matt Hasselbeck’s top receiver, Mike Williams, is out with a left foot injury.
Chiefs 27 Seahawks 24
Eagles at Bears: The Eagles have won 5 of their last 6.Michael Vick is the biggest surprise this season, and probably in several seasons. They are 3rd in rushing ,and 8th in passing. Against the rush, they are 8th,while ranking 14th against the pass. Chicago have won three straight, with a 16-0 win over Miami on November 18. The Bears are 27th in passing, 20th in rushing, and defensively they are 13th against the pass and 2nd against the run. I expect Vick to do some more shredding of the defense.
Eagles 30 Bears 27.
Rams at Broncos: The Broncos have lost five of their last six, and got pounded 35-14 at San Diego last Monday. They rank 31st against the run, and 20th in stopping the pass. Denver is 4th in passing and 32nd in rushing. The Rams have lost three of their last four. St.Louis is 24th in passing yards, 18th in rushing, and they are also 19th against the pass, but 10th at stopping the run. The Rams are 0-4 on the road, while the Broncos are 2-3 at home. St.Louis is sixth in sacks overall, with 28. That could be trouble for the young offensive line in front of Kyle Orton. Rookie Sam Bradford has eight TD’s and one interception in his last five games. As noted in ESPN.com, Bradford set a rookie record last week, having thrown 169 consecutive passes without an interception, until he was picked with 3:24 left in the game.
St.Louis 30 Denver 28.
Buccaneers at Ravens: This is one of those rare games that you can accurately say could possibly be a Super Bowl caliber game, even though most football fans and analysts would shoot down the idea of Tampa Bay making it to the title game this season. The Bucks Josh Freeman has only been intercepted five times in 388 attempts, which is 1.7 percent, and seventh best in the league. Joe Flacco has 11 touchdowns and one interception in the last five games. Tampa Bay is sixth defending the pass,but 29th stopping the run. On offense they are 12th in rushing yards, and 22 in passing yards. They have won four of their last five. Baltimore is 9th in stopping the run, and 10th against the pass. They are 13th in rushing yards, and 15th in passing yards. The Buccaneers are winners of four of their last 5. The Raven have three wins in their last four games.
Ravens 31 Buccaneers 28.
Chargers at Colts: I love my Colts, but I have to be realistic. Indianapolis has been devastated by injuries to key personnel on offense and defense, and San Diego has been a thorn in the side of the Colts for a few years now. The Chargers have done their annual turnaround after their traditional slow start. As noted in ESPN.com, since the start of the 2005 season, including playoffs, Peyton Manning has a 77.5 passer rating versus San Diego (5-5), which is his lowest against any team he’s played more than three times. He has lost 4 of 5 to the Chargers in that span. Since the 2-5 start for the Chargers, they have won 3 straight, and are averaging 32.7 points, while Phillip Rivers has thrown 10 touchdowns. Vincent Jackson returns for the Chargers, with the possibility that Antonio Gates might also be back from a foot injury, while the Colts are still without Dallas Clark and Austin Collie. Indianapolis is 4-0 at home, and they have won 19 of 20 at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Chargers are 1-4 on the road, and that win was against Houston. The Colts are 2nd in passing yards, 28th in rushing yards, while they are 8th in stopping the pass, and 30th against the run. San Diego is 1st in passing, 17th in running the ball, 1st in passing defense, and 4th in run defense. All of that could spell trouble for the Colts.
Chargers 33 Colts 31.
49ers at Cardinals: Flip a coin on this one as well. Two very mediocre teams. The Niners are 18th in passing, 24th in rushing, 17th stopping the pass, and 14th against the run. The Cardinals are 28th in passing, 30th in rushing, 27th against the pass, and 28th in stopping the run. Arizona has lost 5 straight.
San Francisco 27 Arizona 24.